Note
The author of this page, Wojciech Maly, a Professor at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, has been unwary enough to get himself engaged in a public discussion of the future of the Semiconductor Industry. In the process, he learned the hard way that prediction of the future of such a turbulent domain as the Semiconductor arena is a highly risky business.
First of all, even the best prediction is only partially correct, i.e., it is also partially false. Second, by articulating any opinion in public, one is likely to see two results. If the postulated vision materializes, nobody gets the credit for “a correct prediction”. Simply the credit goes – for a good reason – to those who are responsible for actually building (not predicting) the future. If the prediction is incorrect, the blame sticks to the unfortunate forecaster. It is a lose-lose situation.
On the other hand, predictions are much needed as beacons, or roadmaps, or other pointers helping us to organize research, allocate resources, and simply plan all the activities. For this reason, the author of this page decided to take a risk again by compiling this page and hoping that his, at least partially correct views, will be (partially) helpful in planning for the future.
